Uncertainty Estimation Module for Turbulence Model Predictions in SU2

Abstract

With the advent of improved computational resources, aerospace design has shifted from a testing-based process to a simulation-driven procedure, wherein uncertainties in design and operating conditions are explicitly accounted for in the design under uncertainty methodology. Key sources of such uncertainties in design are the closure models used to account for fluid turbulence. In spite of their importance, no reliable and extensively tested modules are available to estimate this epistemic uncertainty. In this paper, the EQUiPS uncertainty estimation module, developed for the SU2 computational-fluid-dynamics suite, which focuses on uncertainty due to turbulence models, is outlined. The theoretical foundations underlying this uncertainty estimation and its computational implementation are detailed. Thence, the performance of this module is presented for a range of test cases, including both benchmark problems and flows relevant to aerospace design. Across the range of test cases, the uncertainty estimates of the module were able to account for a significant portion of the discrepancy between Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes predictions and high-fidelity data.