Machine learning models for predicting post-cystectomy recurrence and survival in bladder cancer patients

Abstract

Currently in patients with bladder cancer, various clinical evaluations (imaging, operative findings at transurethral resection and radical cystectomy, pathology) are collectively used to determine disease status and prognosis, and recommend neoadjuvant, definitive and adjuvant treatments. We analyze the predictive power of these measurements in forecasting two key long-term outcomes following radical cystectomy, i.e., cancer recurrence and survival. Information theory and machine learning algorithms are employed to create predictive models using a large prospective, continuously collected, temporally resolved, primary bladder cancer dataset comprised of 3503 patients (1971-2016). Patient recurrence and survival one, three, and five years after cystectomy can be predicted with greater than 70% sensitivity and specificity. Such predictions may inform patient monitoring schedules and post-cystectomy treatments. The machine learning models provide a benchmark for predicting oncologic outcomes in patients undergoing radical cystectomy and highlight opportunities for improving care using optimal preoperative and operative data collection.