Uncertain Prediction for Slope Displacement Time-Series Using Gaussian Process Machine Learning

Abstract

The Gaussian process regression (GPR) model, which is a powerful machine learning tool for probabilistic prediction, is introduced into slope displacement prediction. Using this model, the displacements of the slope of the permanent ship lock of the Three Gorges Project, the Wolongsi slope, and the high slope of Longtan hydropower station were predicted. In addition, the predictive uncertainty index (PUI) for describing the uncertainty of the predicted results was proposed, and the corresponding classification of the PUI was established. The study results demonstrate that the GPR model can self-adaptively acquire model parameter values and has satisfactory adaptability for predicting nonlinear time series of slope displacement. The proposed PUI and its classification based on the GPR model enable quantitative uncertainty analysis and, in turn, reliability evaluation of the predicted results. The GPR model provides a new approach to displacement prediction and safety management in slope engineering.