Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC): A Diagnostic Measure for Evaluating the Accuracy of Predictors of Education Outcomes

Abstract

Early Warning Systems (EWS) and Early Warning Indictors (EWI) have recently emerged as an attractive domain for states and school districts interested in predicting student outcomes using data that schools already collect with the intention to better time and tailor interventions. However, current diagnostic measures used across the domain do not consider the dual issues of sensitivity and specificity of predictors, key components for considering accuracy. We apply signal detection theory using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Area Under the Curve (AUC) analysis adapted from the engineering and medical domains, and using the pROC package in R. Using nationally generalizable data from the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002) we provide examples of applying ROC accuracy analysis to a variety of predictors of student outcomes, such as dropping out of high school, college enrollment, and postsecondary STEM degrees and careers.