Generalized Spatio Temporal Autoregressive Rainfall-Enso Pattern In East Java Indonesia

Abstract

Monthly rainfall analysis and forecasts are made to be able to provide a clear picture of the rain and climate conditions that have occurred and will occur in the territory of Indonesia. The information can be known in an area that has the most substantial maximum rainfall and in an area which has the lowest rainfall described and presented spatial pattern by using the ArcView-GIS. The purpose of making monthly rainfall forecasts is to be used and utilized by users, especially in the agriculture and irrigation sectors to plan and make decisions within the next 1 to 3 months related to climatic conditions, especially rainfall. In this paper, we use annual rainfall data in six location East Java. We analysis ENSO phenomena as well as rainfall forecasting in January - March 2018 by using generalized space-time autoregressive and get an accuracy MAPE out sample amount 2.95% dan RMSE out sample amount 4.77.