Weight analysis of influencing factors of dam break risk consequences

Abstract

Abstract. There are numerous influencing factors of the risk consequences of dam break. The scientific and reasonable index system and its weight distribution are some of the key elements for comprehensive evaluation of the dam break risk. Taking into consideration 20 factors, including hazards, exposure and vulnerability, the evaluation index system of the consequences of dam break risk is constructed. Using the Statistical Cloud Model (SCM) to improve the entropy method, we establish the weight calculation model of the influencing factors of dam break risk consequences. The results shows that the top five factors with the highest weight are risk population, flood intensity, alert time, risk understanding and distance from the dam. Compared to traditional algebraic weight calculation methods, the result is basically consistent with the algebraic weight distribution, and increases the range by 2.03 times, supporting a more scientific basis for recognizing and evaluating dam break risk consequences.