Implementation of a Real‐Time System for Automatic Aftershock Forecasting in Japan

Abstract

Research Article| October 31, 2018 Implementation of a Real‐Time System for Automatic Aftershock Forecasting in Japan Takahiro Omi; Takahiro Omi aInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4‐6‐1 Komaba, Meguro‐ku, Tokyo 153‐8505, Japan, [e-mail], [e-mail] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Yosihiko Ogata; Yosihiko Ogata bThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 10‐3 Midori‐cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190‐8562, Japan, [e-mail] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Katsuhiko Shiomi; Katsuhiko Shiomi cNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, 3‐1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305‐0006, Japan, [e-mail], [e-mail] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Bogdan Enescu; Bogdan Enescu dDepartment of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake‐cho, Sakyo‐ku, Kyoto 606‐8502, Japan, [e-mail] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Kaoru Sawazaki; Kaoru Sawazaki cNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, 3‐1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305‐0006, Japan, [e-mail], [e-mail] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Kazuyuki Aihara Kazuyuki Aihara aInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4‐6‐1 Komaba, Meguro‐ku, Tokyo 153‐8505, Japan, [e-mail], [e-mail] Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Takahiro Omi aInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4‐6‐1 Komaba, Meguro‐ku, Tokyo 153‐8505, Japan, [e-mail], [e-mail] Yosihiko Ogata bThe Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 10‐3 Midori‐cho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190‐8562, Japan, [e-mail] Katsuhiko Shiomi cNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, 3‐1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305‐0006, Japan, [e-mail], [e-mail] Bogdan Enescu dDepartment of Geophysics, Graduate School of Science, Kyoto University, Kitashirakawa Oiwake‐cho, Sakyo‐ku, Kyoto 606‐8502, Japan, [e-mail] Kaoru Sawazaki cNational Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience, 3‐1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305‐0006, Japan, [e-mail], [e-mail] Kazuyuki Aihara aInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4‐6‐1 Komaba, Meguro‐ku, Tokyo 153‐8505, Japan, [e-mail], [e-mail] Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 31 Oct 2018 Online Issn: 1938-2057 Print Issn: 0895-0695 © Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2019) 90 (1): 242–250. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180213 Article history First Online: 31 Oct 2018 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation Takahiro Omi, Yosihiko Ogata, Katsuhiko Shiomi, Bogdan Enescu, Kaoru Sawazaki, Kazuyuki Aihara; Implementation of a Real‐Time System for Automatic Aftershock Forecasting in Japan. Seismological Research Letters 2018;; 90 (1): 242–250. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/0220180213 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search ABSTRACT We present a prototype of a real‐time system for automatic aftershock forecasting in Japan. Using real‐time seismicity data from the High Sensitivity Seismograph Network of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience (NIED), the system automatically generates rapid aftershock forecasts. The system starts to issue a time‐dependent forecast about 3 hrs after a mainshock and keeps updating it hourly. The forecast includes the estimated occurrence probabilities of earthquakes with magnitudes equal to or greater than a mainshock. Because an official procedure for aftershock forecasting in Japan does not provide aftershock probabilities in the first week after a large earthquake, this rapid response of the system after a mainshock can complement the existing procedure. We demonstrate the system's performance for the cases of three inland earthquakes that occurred after the establishment of the system in April 2017. We also discuss the potential usefulness of our procedure for forecasting large earthquakes by conducting a retrospective forecast test for the 2016 Kumamoto foreshock–mainshock–aftershock sequence based on the real‐time seismicity data. Our monitoring system is useful for providing continuous timely information on time‐dependent aftershock probabilities. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.