Differential Impacts of 1.5 and 2 °C Warming on Extreme Events Over China Using Statistically Downscaled and Bias‐Corrected CESM Low‐Warming Experiment

Abstract

Abstract Using statistically downscaled and bias‐corrected CESM (Community Earth System Model) 11‐member ensemble, we investigate the changes in precipitation and temperature extremes over China in 1.5 and 2 °C warmer climates. Most regions will experience a significant increase in wet extreme indices accompanied by fewer consecutive dry days under both warming targets. An additional 0.5 °C warming may result in stronger increases in wet extreme indices over most subregions and weak decreases over North China, although the grid point‐level changes between the two scenarios are mostly nonsignificant. A robust increase in extreme high‐temperature events and TNn (the coldest night) is found across China at a 2 °C relative to 1.5 °C scenario. Compared to a 2 °C world, a 0.5 °C less warming avoids 32–34% of the increases in the frequency and intensity of temperature extremes in China, particularly over Northeast China.