Five factors that will decide the future of Antarctica

Abstract

Five factors that will eventually lead to political–legal changes in the Antarctic Treaty System are analysed. The increase in membership, heterogeneity and asymmetry of the states that are part of it, including the seven claimants, has produced substantial changes in the political equilibrium of this international regime. The pressure to internationalise Antarctic governance puts stress on the relationship between “traditional” and “new” Antarctic countries. It is a scenario where the importance of sovereignty and the influence of the claimant states are greater than is normally assumed in the public discourse. The new uses of, and economic and strategic interests in Antarctica have also had an important effect on the evolution of this international regime. The purpose of this article is to promote prospective studies about all these topics. It is necessary to think about the future of Antarctic governance to ensure that strategic decisions are taken at the appropriate time, so that the objectives of the Antarctic Treaty System can be achieved. The task of thinking about Antarctic futures must be faced with a multidisciplinary vision.