A retrospective analysis of leucocyte count as a strong predictor of survival for patients with acute paraquat poisoning

Abstract

The aim of this study is the identification of a reliable predictor of prognosis to optimize the treatment of acute paraquat (PQ) poisoning patients. We performed a retrospective analysis on 96 patients with acute PQ poisoning to evaluate leucocyte count as a predictor of 90-day survival. These patients were admitted to the emergency department from May 2012 to February 2017. Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare the 90-day survival. Cox proportional hazard models were utilized to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted to analyze the discriminatory potential of leucocyte with respect to 90-day survival. Result showed that leucocyte was significantly higher among nonsurvivors than that among survivors (p<0.001). Leukocyte was also an independent predictor of survival according to the multivariate Cox analysis (HR 1.103; 95%CI: 1.062-1.146; p<0.001). The area under the curve (AUC) for leucocyte (AUC 0.911; 95%CI: 0.855-0.966; p<0.001) showed a discriminatory potential similar to that of the plasma PQ concentration (AUC 0.961; 95%CI: 0.926-0.997; p<0.001) in predicting 90-day survival. The leucocyte count is a strong predictor of survival in patients with acute PQ poisoning.