Criticality, Entropy and Conflict

Abstract

Power‐law distributions are ubiquitous in the natural and social worlds and also characterize the intensity of intrastate conflicts. One of the most convincing approaches to explain the origin of power laws is the so‐called forest‐fire model, which is based on the notion of self‐organized criticality. In order to make this model more fruitful for social science, its components require a deeper theoretical specification. We turn to general systems theory and the conception of entropy (uncertainty, insecurity and disorder) and its conceptual complement, negentropy. We argue that intrastate conflict is an ‘eruptive’ form of ‘social fissioning’: an evolutionary mechanism whereby sharp friend–foe differences and rigid within‐group conformity are created, increasing the certainty of social interactions. In intrastate conflicts, the political system burdens the economic and cultural systems with entropy and extracts negentropy resources from them. This process is characterized by discontinuous outbursts of entropy, which collectively follow a power law. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.