Probabilistic Models for Spatio-Temporal Photovoltaic Power Forecasting

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power generation is characterized by significant variability. Accurate PV forecasts are a prerequisite to securely and economically operating electricity networks, especially in the case of large-scale penetration. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic spatio-temporal model for the PV power production that exploits production information from neighboring plants. The model provides the complete future probability density function of PV production for very short-term horizons (0-6 h). The method is based on quantile regression and a L <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">1</sub> penalization technique for automatic selection of the input variables. The proposed modeling chain is simple, making the model fast and scalable to direct on-line application. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated using a real-world test case, with a high number of geographically distributed PV installations and by comparison with state-of-the-art probabilistic methods.