Times series analysis of age-specific tuberculosis at a rapid developing region in China, 2011–2016

Abstract

The city of Shenzhen has recently experienced extraordinary economic growth accompanied by a huge internal migrant influx. We investigated the local dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) epidemiology in the Nanshan District of Shenzhen to provide insights for TB control strategies for this district and other rapidly developing regions in China. We analyzed the age-specific incidence and number of TB cases in the Nanshan District from 2011 to 2016. Over all, the age-standardized incidence of TB decreased at an annual rate of 3.4%. The incidence was lowest amongst the age group 0-14 and showed no increase in this group over the six-year period (P = 0.587). The fastest decreasing incidence was among the 15-24 age group, with a yearly decrease of 13.3% (β = 0.867, P < 0.001). In contrast, the TB incidence increased in the age groups 45-54, 55-54, and especially in those aged ≥65, whose yearly increase was 13.1% (β = 1.131, P < 0.001). The peak time of TB case presentation was in April, May, and June for all age groups, except in August for the 45-54 cohort. In the rapidly developing Nanshan District, TB control policies targeted to those aged 45 years and older should be considered. The presentation of TB cases appears to peak in the spring months.