Machine Learning Regression Techniques for the Silage Maize Yield Prediction Using Time-Series Images of Landsat 8 OLI

Abstract

Machine learning (ML) techniques have been utilized for the crop monitoring and yield estimation/prediction using remotely sensed data. However, these methods have been investigated less for yield prediction of some crops, such as silage maize, which can be cultivated at various times in different fields of an area. Inconsistency between fields for satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) temporal profiles can lead to some difficulties in yield prediction methods using time series of remotely sensed data. Therefore, this research has investigated silage maize yield prediction based on time series of NDVI dataset derived from Landsat 8 OLI. This paper employed advanced ML techniques including boosted regression tree (BRT), random forest regression (RFR), support vector regression, and Gaussian process regression (GPR) approaches and compared their performance with some proposed conventional regression methods. For this purpose, the NDVI values of all silage maize fields were averaged and integrated to produce a two-dimensional dataset for each year. The ML techniques were employed 100 times and their evaluation metrics were used to evaluate their performances and also analyze their stability. Finally, all the results of each ML technique were averaged to produce silage maize yields. The comparisons between the results of these methods indicate that the BRT technique, with the average $R$ value higher than 0.87, outperforms other ones for all years. It was followed by RFR with almost same performance as GPR technique. This research demonstrated that some advanced ML approaches can predict the silage maize yield and they are less sensitive to inconsistency of NDVI time series. The results also showed that RFR was the most stable method to predict the maize yield in 2015, while it was trained using 2013-2014 dataset.