Consequences of global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C for temperature and precipitation changes over Central Africa

Abstract

Discriminating climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels is particularly important for Central Africa, a vulnerable regions where multiple biophysical, political, and socioeconomic stresses interact to constrain the region’s adaptive capacity. This study uses an\nensemble of 25 transient regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the CORDEX initiative, forced with the representative concentration pathway RCP8.5, to investigate the potential temperature and precipitation changes in Central Africa corresponding to 1.5°C and 2°C global warming levels. Global climate model simulations from the Coupled Model intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are used to drive the RCMs and determine timing of the targeted global warming levels. The regional warming differ considerably over Central\nAfrica for 1.5°C and 2°C warming levels. Compared to changes in temperature, changes in precipitation are more heterogeneous and climate model simulations indicate of lack consensus across the region, though there is tendency towards decrease of seasonal\nprecipitation and reduction of consecutive wet days. As a drought indicator, significant increase of consecutive dry days was found. Consistent changes of maximum 5-day rainfall are detected between 1.5°C vs. 2°C global warming levels.