A EMD-BP integrated model to forecast tourist number and applied to Jiuzhaigou

Abstract

This paper focuses on improving the accurate prediction of tourist capacity, which is the key to solve the contradiction of tourism economy development and ecological environment protection. EMD-BP integrated predictive model is proposed and uses Empirical Model Decompose method to decompose time-s eries data of visitors into several TMF, then forecasting each component by BP neural network. In order to shown the effective of our method, an empirical study of Jiuzhaigou is conducted, and the average error rate of EMD-BP integrated prediction model is 8.8%, among which the error within 1% accounts for 31.3% of the total predicted amount, the error within 5% accounts for 41.7%, the error above 10% accounts for 30.2% in slack seasons and 69.8% in busy seasons.