Proposal of Prognostic Survival Models before and after Liver Resection for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Potentially Transplantable Patients

Abstract

In Brief BACKGROUND: Transplantable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a highly debated issue due to the overlap between indications for liver resection (LR) and transplantation (LT) in patients suitable for both. STUDY DESIGN: Between January 2000 and December 2012, five hundred and twenty-four transplantable patients affected by HCC were identified among resected patients. Two regression models were constructed to classify patients into 2 groups pre-low and pre-high risk based on preoperative variables and then to reclassify pre-low-risk patients according to postoperative variables into either post-low or post-high-risk. Additionally, a cohort of patients with comparable baseline characteristics who underwent LT were similarly classified into pre-low and pre-high-risk groups and compared with the resected patients in terms of survival. RESULTS: Cirrhosis, aspartate transaminase, α-fetoprotein, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, number of nodules, and diameter of the largest nodule were preoperatively found to be significantly related to overall survival post-LR. Microvascular invasion and satellites were selected to reclassify prognosis in the resulting preoperative low-risk group into post-high risk. The converted group (post-high) demonstrated the same 5-year survival as the pre-high group. Patients undergoing LT had better survival overall than those undergoing LR, with the exception of pre-low LT and post-low LR (confirmed low-risk LR) who had similar outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The new models were strongly predictive of patients' likelihood of survival after LR for HCC on liver cirrhosis. Liver transplantation offers a survival advantage over LR, except in low-risk groups where both modalities might be comparable. Patients assessed at high risk of death before liver resection should be considered for liver transplantation. Patients who remain at low risk of death after liver resection can be considered cured and their survival will probably be similar to survival after liver transplantation. Patients who switch from low to high risk after liver resection should be considered for ab initio liver transplantation.