Entropy · 2017 · 31 citations · 53 references
BusinessCivil EngineeringSystems EngineeringDecision TheoryRisk AssessmentTunnel EngineeringDecision Making Under RiskDecision Under RiskDecision Under UncertaintyDecision-making Under UncertaintyRisk ModelingRisk-based Decision MakingDecision Analysis Under UncertaintyEpistemic UncertaintyEpistemic Utility TheoryGeotechnical RiskModel UncertaintyParameter UncertaintyRisk Assessment In TunnelingRisk Decision Analysis
Uncertainty, particularly epistemic uncertainty, is a primary risk factor in large geotechnical projects such as tunnels, and its reduction is increasingly prioritized. The study seeks to extend the entropy‑risk decision model by incorporating model uncertainty and differing risk attitudes, thereby improving decision‑making for tunnel projects. Utility theory, sensitivity analysis, and tolerance cost are integrated into the revised entropy‑risk framework to quantify model uncertainty. The resulting model improves decision‑making efficiency and provides guidance for complex engineering risk assessment, indicating avenues for future research.
The impact of uncertainty on risk assessment and decision-making is increasingly being prioritized, especially for large geotechnical projects such as tunnels, where uncertainty is often the main source of risk. Epistemic uncertainty, which can be reduced, is the focus of attention. In this study, the existing entropy-risk decision model is first discussed and analyzed, and its deficiencies are improved upon and overcome. Then, this study addresses the fact that existing studies only consider parameter uncertainty and ignore the influence of the model uncertainty. Here, focus is on the issue of model uncertainty and differences in risk consciousness with different decision-makers. The utility theory is introduced in the model. Finally, a risk decision model is proposed based on the sensitivity analysis and the tolerance cost, which can improve decision-making efficiency. This research can provide guidance or reference for the evaluation and decision-making of complex systems engineering problems, and indicate a direction for further research of risk assessment and decision-making issues.
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Aleatory or epistemic? Does it matter?
Armen Der Kiureghian, Ove Ditlevsen · Structural Safety · 2008 · 2.4K citations
The Neural Basis of Loss Aversion in Decision-Making Under Risk
Sabrina M. Tom, Craig R. Fox, Christopher Trepel et al. · Science · 2007 · 1.8K citations