Quantification of Flood Damage under Potential Climate Change Impacts in Central Vietnam

Abstract

Abstract The quantification of economic losses due to floods becomes necessary in flood management. In this context, the study aims to assess insights into flood damage under potential impacts of climate change in central Vietnam. The HadGEM3–RA Regional Climate Model (RCM) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios was used in this study. A bias correction technique for adjusting RCM simulations was applied to correct the climate input data for systematic statistical deviations from observed data. In addition, a coupling of the HEC‐HMS and HEC‐RAS hydrodynamic models and the flood damage reduction analysis model (HEC‐FDA) was applied to assess the level of flood hazard and damage existing in central Vietnam. The findings showed that the weather in central Vietnam will be warmer in the future with the average temperature increasing from 0.2 to 0.8°C, and annual rainfall will increase from 3.5 to 6.8%. The water level and runoff will also increase from 0.1 to 0.3 m and 10–30%, respectively. Flood damage was estimated to be US$18.8–20.7 million from the 2020s to the 2080s. Finally, the findings obtained are useful for the decision‐making process in flood management and economic development in Vietnam. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.