Reforecasting the ENSO Events in the Past 57 Years (1958–2014)

Abstract

Abstract A set of ensemble seasonal reforecasts for 1958–2014 is conducted using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2. In comparison with other current reforecasts, this dataset extends the seasonal reforecasts to the 1960s–70s. Direct comparison of the predictability of the ENSO events occurring during the 1960s–70s with the more widely studied ENSO events since then demonstrates the seasonal forecast system’s capability in different phases of multidecadal variability and degrees of global climate change. A major concern for a long reforecast is whether the seasonal reforecasts before 1979 provide useful skill when observations, particularly of the ocean, were sparser. This study demonstrates that, although the reforecasts have lower skill in predicting SST anomalies in the North Pacific and North Atlantic before 1979, the prediction skill of the onset and development of ENSO events in 1958–78 is comparable to that for 1979–2014. In particular, the ENSO predictions initialized in April during 1958–78 show higher skill in the summer. However, the skill of the earlier predictions declines faster in the ENSO decaying phase, because the reforecasts initialized after boreal summer persistently predict lingering wind and SST anomalies over the eastern equatorial Pacific during such events. Reforecasts initialized in boreal fall overestimate the peak SST anomalies of strong El Niño events since the 1980s. Both phenomena imply that the model’s air–sea feedback is overly active in the eastern Pacific before ENSO event termination. Whether these differences are due to changes in the observing system or are associated with flow-dependent predictability remains an open question.