Spatial modelling of land use/cover change (LUCC) in South Tangerang City, Banten

Abstract

Urban expansion in peri-urban region remains a major issue for regional planning and development, as it converts most of the land cover into built-up settlements rapidly and extensively beyond its spatial allocation plan (RTRW). South Tangerang City is one of municipalities in Jabodetabek with the most rapid annual population growth rate reached 6.87%. LUCC analysis from three LANDSAT land cover maps (1990, 2002, and 2014) shows that the built-up area has increased 8 times (8650 ha) in 1990-2014 with the average annual growth rate of 10.83% per sub-district (kelurahan). The most extensive land conversion type in 1990-2002 was vegetated land to open land (3605ha), while in 2002-2014 land conversion type was dominated by open land to built-up (3446ha). In general, the built-up area expansion in 1990-2002 shows irregular ribbon development pattern in district Serpong Utara, Pondok Aren, Ciputat Timur, Ciputat, and Pamulang, while district Serpong tends to represent leap frog development pattern. The expansion in 2002-2014 shows infill and ribbon development pattern continuation across the city. MLP was used to model LUCC sensitivity prediction. The model performance shows 73.16% accuracy with ROC validation of prediction output reaches 0.804 for 2014, which is qualified to predict LUCC sensitivity in 2032.