First-order reliability method-based system reliability analyses of corroding pipelines considering multiple defects and failure modes

Abstract

A methodology that employs the first-order reliability method is proposed to evaluate the time-dependent system reliability of a segment of a pressurised steel pipeline containing multiple active corrosion defects. The methodology considers the leak and burst failure modes of the pipe segment and takes into account the correlations among limit state functions at different corrosion defects. The methodology involves first constructing two linearised equivalent limit state functions for the pipe segment in the standard normal space and then evaluating the probabilities of leak and burst of the segment incrementally over time based on the equivalent limit state functions. The applicability and accuracy of the proposed methodology is illustrated through system reliability analyses of three pipeline examples, each containing ten active corrosion defects whose growth over time is characterised by the linear, nonlinear and homogeneous gamma process-based models.