A Spatiotemporal Model for Extreme Precipitation Simulated by a Climate Model, With an Application to Assessing Changes in Return Levels Over North America

Abstract

Summary Extreme precipitation plays a major role in flooding events and their occurrence and intensity are expected to increase. Because climate models are the only tools for providing quantitative projections of precipitation, flood risk management for the future climate may be based on the simulation of such events. The goal of the paper is to develop a spatiotemporal statistical model for extremes that is particularly suited to climate model outputs, which are transient and lie on a regular grid. Using the statistical model proposed, projected precipitation return levels for the coming climate over North America are estimated.