Modeling the uncertainties in renewable generation and smart grid loads for the study of the grid vulnerability

Abstract

The uncertainties of power systems are becoming more and more important due to power systems restructuring and ever increasing renewable generation integration into the grid. In the literature several uncertainty modeling approaches have been proposed to facilitate decision making process for efficient operation of power systems. These approaches mainly focus on deriving a statistical representation for different sources of uncertainty such as load, generation, and line capacities. However, there is a need for an uncertainty model which can capture the frequency components of uncertainty signals for applications such as voltage control, frequency control/ stability, and grid vulnerability analysis. In this paper we proposed an uncertainty modeling approach that captures the high dynamics of renewable generation uncertainty and smart grid loads and reveals their frequency domain characteristics. We tested the proposed model on IEEE 300 bus system to evaluate the impact of uncertainty on line flows.