Electoral Control with Behavioral Voters

Abstract

We present a model of electoral control with behavioral voters. The model captures two main regularities of voting behavior found in empirical studies: voters are forgetful and are influenced by extraneous events beyond the control of public officials. Specifically, we assume that voters’ propensities to reelect the incumbent are governed by a stochastic reinforcement process instead of strategic reasoning. We show that even in the presence of behavioral voters, electoral control (i.e., public officials’ incentive to exercise effort) can work well. More generally, the extent of control depends on the properties of the election and the electorate. A higher impact of negative events benefits electoral control, as the incumbent must exert greater effort to ensure reelection. Increasing the benefits of holding office also has a positive effect, while the degree of voter forgetfulness helps electoral control if and only if elections are held frequently.