Multi-step-ahead Crude Oil Price Forecasting based on Grey Wave Forecasting Method

Abstract

Crude oil price plays an important role in the development of global economy. Numerous industry practitioners, researchers and policy makers pay much attention on the fluctuations of crude oil price as while as the accurate prediction of it. This paper uses a graphical prediction method-grey wave forecasting-to forecast multi-step-ahead crude oil price, which enriches the literature of crude oil price prediction and extends the application scope of grey system forecasting theory. The empirical results demonstrate that based on the daily data of crude oil price, grey wave forecasting method performs well in multi-step-ahead prediction and it can also dominate ARMA(1,1).