Hegemonic and Bipolar Perspectives on the New World Order

Abstract

Theory: Two contending structural approaches, hegemony and bipolarity, are used to examine the frequency of important systemic phenomena during the Cold War era. Hypotheses: Increased bipolarization and military imbalance between the superpowers lead to increases in systemic disturbances. Increased hegemonic control and increased support for hegemonic leadership lead to fewer systemic disturbances. Higher levels of bipolarity and hegemony are predicted to covary with increasing status inconsistency. Methods: Maximum likelihood estimation (using a generalized event count estimator) of data on interstate war, crises, and foreign policy activity; and regression analysis of status consistency. Results: Systemic dynamics during the Cold War fit the assertions of the hegemonic model. Increased hegemonic control is associated with fewer wars, crises and foreign policy activity. Predictions from the bipolar view are not supported.