Has Cable Ended the Golden Age of Presidential Television?

TLDR

For three decades presidents have used prime‑time television to reach a captive audience, but recent declines in viewership—attributable mainly to the rise of cable—have challenged this tradition. The study seeks to determine whether cable growth or political disaffection explains the decline by modeling individual viewing choices. The authors constructed a viewing‑decision model using 1996 NES cross‑sectional data and 128 Nielsen ratings of presidential appearances from 1969 to 1998. The analysis shows that cable, not disaffection, has ended the golden era of presidential television, and that presidents and networks are strategically adjusting their appearance schedules.

Abstract

For the past 30 years, presidents have enlisted prime-time television to promote their policies to the American people. For most of this era, they have been able to commandeer the national airwaves and speak to “captive” viewers. Recently, however, presidents appear to be losing their audiences. Two leading explanations are the rise of political disaffection and the growth of cable. We investigate both by developing and testing a model of the individual's viewing decision using both cross-sectional (1996 NES survey) and time-series (128 Nielsen audience ratings for presidential appearances between 1969 and 1998) data. We find that cable television but not political disaffection has ended the golden era of presidential television. Moreover, we uncover evidence that both presidents and the broadcast networks have begun adapting strategically to this new reality in scheduling presidential appearances.