Water Demand Forecasting for the City of the Future against the Uncertainties and the Global Change Pressures: Case of Birmingham

Abstract

In order to ensure the adequate and sustainable water management for the city of the future, the impact of the global change pressures and sources of uncertainties should be analyzed appropriately. This paper presents a model for forecasting the future water demand addressing the uncertainties associated to the climate change, population and economic growth. It uses the historic time series records of water consumption for forecasting the future water demand, and applies the Monte Carlo sampling, Latin hypercube sampling and bootstrap methods to describe the associated uncertainties. The model was applied in Birmingham, UK to analyse the water demand for year 2035. Results showed that future water demand in Birmingham will be governed by the socio-economic factors not by the climate change impact. There is a very high likely risk of not meeting the future water demand from the existing supply sources.