The Determinants of Candidates' Vote Share and the Advantages of Incumbency in City Council Elections

Abstract

Theory: The congressional and state legislative elections literature suggest that candidates' performance in elections is largely a function of incumbency, campaign spending, and party support. Little is known, however, about how these variables affect candidates' vote share in city council elections. Hypotheses: I expect incumbency, campaign spending, and party organization support to be the most important predictors of candidates' vote share. In addition, I expect endorsements from local newspapers and race or ethnicity of the candidates to influence election outcomes. Methods: Multiple regression models are tested on 631 candidates who ran for the Chicago city council between 1979 and 1995. Data are from a variety of local newspapers, official campaign finance disclosure reports, and official election returns. Results: Incumbency, Democratic party support, number of opponents, campaign spending, and newspaper endorsements are all significant predictors of candidates' vote share. Democratic Party organization support is still an important component of ward-level politics in Chicago, despite a weakening of the machine at the county level. Findings also indicate that campaign spending is an increasingly important component of these contests.