Modeling the Deterrent Effects of Punishment

Abstract

Nonexperimental (homicide) and experimental data are used to study the effects of the certainty and severity of punishment. Many deterrence researchers, working without systematic theory of how punishments should operate to influence behavior, have opted for a simple additive model of certainty and severity. However, a satisfaction balance model-a social psychological theory representing a modification of the matching equation and positing interactive effects of certainty and severity-fits both sets of data well and substantially better than an additive model. The implications of the satisfaction balance model for a theory of deterrence are discussed