Bad Assumptions or Bad Luck: Why Earthquake Hazard Maps Need Objective Testing

Abstract

Research Article| September 01, 2011 Bad Assumptions or Bad Luck: Why Earthquake Hazard Maps Need Objective Testing Seth Stein; Seth Stein Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Robert Geller; Robert Geller Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Mian Liu Mian Liu Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Author and Article Information Seth Stein Robert Geller Mian Liu Publisher: Seismological Society of America First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Online ISSN: 1938-2057 Print ISSN: 0895-0695 © 2011 by the Seismological Society of America Seismological Research Letters (2011) 82 (5): 623–626. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.82.5.623 Article history First Online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Email Permissions Search Site Citation Seth Stein, Robert Geller, Mian Liu; Bad Assumptions or Bad Luck: Why Earthquake Hazard Maps Need Objective Testing. Seismological Research Letters 2011;; 82 (5): 623–626. doi: https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.82.5.623 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietySeismological Research Letters Search Advanced Search During World War II, future Nobel Prize winner Kenneth Arrow served as a military weather forecaster. "My colleagues had the responsibility of preparing long-range weather forecasts, i.e., for the following month," he wrote. "The statisticians among us subjected these forecasts to verification and found they differed in no way from chance. The forecasters themselves were convinced and requested that the forecasts be discontinued. The reply read approximately like this: `The commanding general is well aware that the forecasts are no good. However, he needs them for planning purposes.'" (Gardner 2010). Seismologists often encounter a similar situation when... You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.