Predicting Sector Capacity for TFM Decision Support

Abstract

En route sector congestion exists when the air traffic demand on an en route sector exceeds the sector capacity. A metric of sector capacity is needed that (1) is a good approximation of the amount of traffic that can be effectively handled in the sector, (2) can be predicted at look-ahead times of 30 minutes to several hours, and (3) can include the impact of convective weather on available capacity. This paper presents a novel approach to predicting sector capacity for airspace congestion management. First, a set of primary flow patterns for each sector of interest is identified through cluster analysis. Second, the sector capacity for each pattern is established based on observed system performance transition behavior. Finally, future sector capacity for a given prediction look-ahead time can be predicted through pattern recognition. Quantifying sector capacity as a function of traffic flow pattern also provides a basis for capturing weather impact on sector capacity.