Lessons from the Past: Policy Implications of Historical Fertility Studies

TLDR

The authors note that Europe’s fertility decline occurred under diverse socioeconomic conditions, was concentrated over time, coincided with rapid adoption of family limitation practices, and was strongly influenced by cultural factors. The study observes an innovation‑diffusion dimension in reproductive pattern changes and considers its implications for family planning programs in developing countries. The authors analyze fertility data through an innovation‑diffusion framework to assess changes in reproductive patterns. Drawing on data from the Princeton European Fertility Project, the authors find that income and prices had limited influence on child demand before or during early fertility decline, and that early European fertility transition can only be explained by changes in tastes, a decline in the cost of fertility regulation, or a combination of both. Excerpt of the abstract is provided.

Abstract

Drawing on data compiled during Princeton European Fertility Project authors find that the historical record suggests relative lack of importance of income and prices in determining demand for children prior to or during early stages of fertility decline [in Europe during last century]. They assert that some early features of European transition from high to low fertility can only be explained by a change in tastes or a decline in cost of fertility regulation or some combination of two. Among features of Europes demographic transition that authors note are the variety of social economic and demographic conditions under which decline of fertility occurred; its remarkable concentration over time; apparent coincidence of decline with sudden adoption of family limitation practices; rapid generalization of such practices once they appeared; resultant drastic change of reproductive regimes; and finally importance of cultural factors among those that appeared to influence onset and spread of fertility decline. An innovation-diffusion dimension to change in reproductive patterns is observed and implications for family planning programs in developing countries are considered. (EXCERPT)