Rising temperatures, rising tensions : climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East

Abstract

Scientific evidence suggests that climate change will have significant impacts to food security, disease prevalence, population distribution, and water availability in the Middle East. This paper discussed the likelihood of increased conflict as a result of climatic change in Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and the occupied Palestinian territory. A range of consultations and interviews with experts were analyzed in order to determine security threats in the region over the next 40 years. The study showed that the legacy of conflict in the region will hamper its ability to adapt to climate change. Climate change is likely to increase competition for water resources, intensify food shortages, and hinder economic growth. Climate change may also lead to forced migration and tensions with existing refugee populations and increase the militarization of natural resources. Strategies to pursue sustainable development in the Levant region included fostering a culture of conservation, addressing core tensions related to agriculture and water development, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regional cooperation is needed to develop effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction plans. 68 refs., 3 tabs., 22 figs.