Estimation of overdiagnosis using short-term trends and lead time estimates uncontaminated by overdiagnosed cases: Results from the Norwegian Breast Screening Programme

Abstract

Using short-term trends, instead of long, prior to screening was more effective in predicting incidence in the screening epoch. In addition, sojourn time estimation using symptomatic cancers only avoids over-correction for lead time and consequently underestimation of overdiagnosis. Longer follow-up will provide more precise estimates of overdiagnosis.