Observations of predictive skill for real-time Deterministic Sea Waves from the WaMoS II

Abstract

OceanWaveS GmbH has been developing a prototype system, based on standard non-coherent X-band navigational radars, capable of predicting future sea surface elevations. Combined with a vessel hydrodynamic simulator, this system will forecast ship motions. Applications for such a system include offshore operations, e.g. crane lifts, LNG, cargo and personnel transfers. The forecasts may be assimilated into automated control systems; e.g. floating wind turbines or dynamic positioning systems, or used within Decision Support Systems. This article presents correlation analysis results between the predicted sea surface elevations and vessel-mounted reference sensors for three independent sea trials. Despite neglecting vessel hydrodynamics, correlations of forecasts to measured references of 80% are achieved for T+60 seconds predictions for all sea trials. The prediction horizon is observed up to 180 seconds of forecast.