Development of Life Expectancy in the Czech Republic in Years 1920-2010 with an Outlook to 2050

Abstract

At present the majority of advanced countries are dealing with the problem of the ageing of the population. The Czech Republic is no exception. Demographic ageing is caused by the fact that mortality is dropping, especially infant mortality, and this expectation of life at birth. At the same time the birth rate is declining and subsequently total fertility rate drops below the preservation level of simple reproduction, which means that there are less children and more persons in particular in the older and oldest age-groups. It is very important to realise that the changes in the level of mortality bring with them positive impacts in lengthening of life expectancy on the one hand, but on the other hand, there is significant demographic ageing of the population. In this contribution we would like to show how the life expectancy has developed in the Czech Republic in a historical context and how it might develop in the coming years. For professionals the application of the Lee-Carter method will certainly be interesting - this is a method commonly used in the world by demographers and actuaries for modelling the future development of mortality and it is also the basic method used for stochastic demographic projections.