Air temperature and precipitation variability in northeastern Bulgaria on the background of climate change

Abstract

The aim of the present research work is to bring to better understanding the recent climate change at regional scale. The tendencies of many-years variability of air temperature and precipitation in Northeastern Bulgaria are determined. In order to determine future tendencies in air temperature and precipitation variability the data from regional climate models are analyzed. The occurrence of extreme monthly temperature and precipitation totals are investigated by calculation of 10 and 90 percentiles of the empirical distribution in the reference period 1961-1990. The main result of present work is that there are a positive tendency in changes of air temperature and negative in precipitation. The regional climate model data show increasing of extreme hot and dry months which is considerable for the second part of 21 century.