Assessing Socioeconomic Impacts of Climate Change on US Forests, Wood-Product Markets, and Forest Recreation

Abstract

Scientists have suggested that future climate change will significantly affect the distribution, condition, species composition, and productivity of forests (Aber et al. 2001, Dale et al. 2001, Hansen et al. 2001, McNulty and Aber 2001). These biological changes will set in motion complex regional changes in supplies of wood to sawmills and paper mills, producing effects on market prices. In turn, landowners and consumers will adapt in ways that cause further feedback effects on forests. For some time, social scientists have been assessing the manifold implications for social and economic welfare. In particular, they have been examining ways in which price responses to changing supplies cause timber growers, sawmills and pulpmills, producers, and consumers to adapt. This paper reviews this research, focusing on the forest benefits of timber production and outdoor recreation. Analyzing these sectors involves quite different methods and issues because wood products are primarily producer goods that reach consumers through a complex marketing chain, whereas forest-recreation experiences are directly consumed by visitors. As part of the national assessment of climate change, a socioeconomic team (the authors of this article) assembled existing data and conducted limited new analyses. In this short summary, many important topics must be left aside.