Markov Chain Model for probability of weekly rainfall in Orathanadu Taluk, Thanjavur District, Tamil Nadu

Abstract

It is necessary to know the sequence of dry and wet periods for successful agricultural management and planning of soil and water conservation measures. Probability analysis is a very useful tool for making important decisions in agricultural operation. In this study, Markov Chain Model has been extensively used to study spell distribution. For this purpose a week period was considered as the optimum length of time. The present study has been carried out to find the probabilities of occurrence of wet week (W), wet week preceded by wet week (W/W) at different threshold limits of 10 and 20 mm. On the basis of the analysis the following conclusions are made: (a) the 3 and 31/2month varieties are best suited for Vettikkadu region; (b) 31/2 and 4 months paddy varieties can be successfully grown in Neivasal Thenpathi area and (c) 4 and 41/2 months paddy varieties are favourably grown in Orathanadu region.