Slicing, Dicing, and Scoping the Size of the U.S. Commercial Real Estate Market

Abstract

Executive Summary. We use a Census approach to calculate the size of the built commercial real estate market in the United States. We provide estimates of values at the summary level as of mid and late 2009 and relate these to the concentrations observed by state. This likely corresponds to the bottom of the current cycle providing a reference point for future comparisons. At least $4 trillion has been lost on commercial real estate from 2006 to early 2010. As of the end of 2009, the total value of commercial real estate, excluding parking lots, is about $11 trillion including owner-occupied property. If we eliminate the specialty property or simply use the mid-point in 2009, it is closer to $9 trillion. What is truly amazing is that for some property types, these values are about half of replacement cost.