Experts' Perceptions of Autocorrelation: The Hot Hand Fallacy Among Professional Basketball Players

Abstract

The hot hand fallacy is the perception positive autocorrelation when none is actually present. However, when mistaken beliefs do not aect the underlying success probability, then they come at zero cost if the underlying sequence truly exhibits independence. This paper studies an environment where success probabilities are a function of beliefs: shot selection in professional basketball. Beliefs are inferred through shot conditions such as time between shots, distance, defense, location, passes and touches. I nd that a majority of the players in the sample