Modeling and Forecasting Maternal Mortality; an Application of ARIMA Models

Abstract

This study examines maternal mortality ratios at the Okomfo Anokye Teaching Hospital in Kumasi from the year 2000 to 2010. The study explores the feasibility for application of Box-Jenkins Approach to time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) in modeling and forecasting Maternal Mortality ratios (MMR). Analyses were based on data available at the Bio-Statistics Department of the Obstetrics& Gynaecology directorate of the facility. The result shows that the hospitals Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) was relatively stable but had a very alarmingaverage quarterlyMMR of 967.7 per 100,000 live births which is about twice the National ratio of 451 per 100,000 live births. With AIC (581.41), we conclude that the ARIMA (1,0,2) model is adequate for forecasting quarterly maternal mortality ratios at the hospital.