Prospects for China's Corn Yield Growth and Imports

Abstract

Chinese corn yields are growing, but at a slower pace than U.S. yields. Chinese corn yield growth is most evident in the North China Plain region. The Northeast region is expected to account for most of China’s increase in corn supply, but yield growth is weaker in that region. Extrapolating historical trends into the future suggests that China’s consumption of corn will outpace growth in domestic supply. Imports from the United States and other countries are likely to fill China’s corn deficit.