The impact of climate change on China's agriculture

TLDR

Climate change is expected to alter agriculture in China, but indirect effects such as altered water flow are not captured in this study. The study uses cross‑sectional data from rainfed and irrigated farms to analyze how temperature and precipitation affect net crop revenues. Global warming is projected to harm rainfed farms and benefit irrigated farms, with initially mild net losses that intensify over time and regional differences—Southeast farms are least affected while Northeast and Northwest farms face the greatest damages.

Abstract

Abstract This article examines how expected changes in climate are likely to affect agriculture in China. The effects of temperature and precipitation on net crop revenues are analyzed using cross‐sectional data consisting of both rainfed and irrigated farms. Based on survey data from 8,405 households across 28 provinces, the results suggest that global warming is likely to be harmful to rainfed farms but beneficial to irrigated farms. The net impacts will be only mildly harmful at first, but the damages will grow over time. The impacts also vary by region. Farms in the Southeast will only be mildly affected but farms in the Northeast and Northwest will bear the largest damages. However, the study does not capture the indirect effects on farms of possible changes in water flow, which may be important in China.