Will Generalist Physician Supply Meet Demands Of An Increasing And Aging Population?

TLDR

Population growth and aging threaten the nation's primary‑care foundation for adults. Workloads for adult primary care are projected to rise 29 % by 2025, but the supply of generalists will grow only 7 % (or 2 % if graduate numbers decline), leading to a deficit of 35,000–44,000 adult‑care generalists, while pediatric workloads will increase 13 % and child‑care supply will remain adequate.

Abstract

We predict that population growth and aging will increase family physicians' and general internists' workloads by 29 percent between 2005 and 2025. We expect a 13 percent increased workload for care of children by pediatricians and family physicians. However, the supply of generalists for adult care, adjusted for age and sex, will increase 7 percent, or only 2 percent if the number of graduates continues to decline through 2008. We expect deficits of 35,000-44,000 adult care generalists, although the supply for care of children should be adequate. These forces threaten the nation's foundation of primary care for adults.