Building Consensus Using the Policy Delphi Method

TLDR

The policy Delphi method is a systematic approach for gathering, exchanging, and refining informed opinions on policy issues, and it can be used to build consensus either for or against those issues. This article describes how the policy Delphi method can be applied to build consensus for public policy and proposes a technique for measuring the degree of consensus. The method follows a multistage process: an initial measurement of opinions, data analysis, redesign of the questionnaire, and a second measurement, with interquartile deviation and the McNemar test used to quantify consensus and shifts in responses. The approach is illustrated with a case example of state legislators’ views on tobacco policy.

Abstract

This article describes the use of the policy Delphi method in building consensus for public policy and proposes a technique for measuring the degree of consensus. The policy Delphi method is a systematic method for obtaining, exchanging, and developing informed opinion on an issue. It can be used to develop consensus either for or against policy issues. The method includes a multistage process involving the initial measurement of opinions (first stage), followed by data analysis, design of a new questionnaire, and a second measurement of opinions (second stage). The interquartile deviation is presented as one way of measuring consensus, and the McNemar test is described as a way to quantify the degree of shift in responses from the first to second stage. The application of the method is illustrated by a case example from a study of state legislators’ views on tobacco policy.