Mean reversion of size‐sorted portfolios and parametric contrarian strategies

Abstract

Evidence of mean reversion in U.S. stock prices during the post‐World War II era is mixed. I find that using the standard portfolio formation method to construct size‐sorted portfolios is inadequate for detecting mean reversion. Using alternative portfolio formation methods and additional cross‐sectional power gained from size‐sorted portfolios during the period 1963 to 1998, I find strong evidence of mean reversion in portfolio prices. My findings imply a significantly positive speed of reversion with a half‐life of approximately three and a half years. Parametric contrarian investment strategies that exploit mean reversion outperform buy‐and‐hold and standard contrarian strategies.