Caveat emptor: adverse selection in buying properties under construction

Abstract

This paper examines the adverse selection problem associated with the pre‐completion marketing of property developments. When developers choose to finance their projects by pre‐selling in a pooling equilibrium, they pass on the risk of failure to the buyers and increase expected profits. Pre‐selling not only places buyers at a potential disadvantage if unexpected negative price shocks occur, but encourages more less‐profitable projects to be undertaken by bad developers. In addition, pre‐selling aggravates the building boom and bust cycle. However, the adverse selection problem can be eliminated if good developers choose to separate themselves by not pre‐selling under the appropriate conditions. This paper also examines interesting comparative statics and policy implications.